A year-by-year projection with 2026 Ontario and federal tax, the average CPP, full OAS, RRIF
minimums and the OAS clawback, in today's dollars.
Sustainable after-tax income to age 95
$51,500 / year
$4,292 a month, steady in today's dollars from age 65 to 95.
Your own numbers will differ. Run them with your CPP estimate, TFSA and pension in the
retirement projection calculator, prefilled with this scenario.
How the money flows, year by year
CPP and OAS start right away, so the RRSP only tops up what they don't cover. The RRSP becomes a RRIF by the end of the year you turn 71, after which a minimum must come out each year.
Age
RRSP/RRIF out
CPP + OAS
Tax
After tax
Balance left
65
$40,000
$19,450
$7,640
$51,810
$975,749
72
$43,563
$19,450
$8,798
$54,215
$775,680
80
$39,541
$19,450
$7,491
$51,500
$531,515
90
$39,541
$19,450
$7,491
$51,500
$192,537
95
$39,541
$19,450
$7,491
$51,500
$1,206
First-year withdrawal $40,000. Total income tax to age 95: $242,554 ; no OAS clawback at this income.
CPP and OAS at 70: $53,300 a year instead of $51,500, $1,800 more, because larger indexed pensions replace withdrawals later. Compare start ages in the CPP and OAS start age calculator.
Some savings in a TFSA: TFSA withdrawals are not taxed and do not count
toward the OAS clawback or GIS. See the drawdown order calculator.
Your real CPP: the projection uses the average CPP at 65
($858.34 a month, July 2026). Your Statement of Contributions in My Service Canada Account
gives your own figure.
Assumptions
All $1 Million is in RRSPs at 65, invested half in bonds and a quarter each in Canadian and U.S. stocks.
Returns and inflation from the FP Canada and Institute of Financial Planning 2026 Projection Assumption
Guidelines: fixed income 3.2%, Canadian equities 6.3%,
U.S. equities 6.4%, inflation 2.1%. Less 1.0% for fees,
that is 3.8% a year, or 1.6% after inflation.
Money lasts to age 95. The Guidelines put the age a 60-year-old has a 25% chance of reaching at
94 for men and 96 for women.
Average CPP and the full OAS (ages 65 to 74 rate, $762.50 a month) from 65, single filer, 2026 tax rules held in today's dollars.
Not included in the income figure: GIS, the 10% OAS increase at 75, a workplace pension, home equity and employment income.
Frequently asked questions
Can I retire at 65 with $1 Million in Ontario?
With $1 Million in RRSPs, retiring at 65 in Ontario supports about $51,500 a year after tax ($4,292 a month, in today's dollars) until age 95, once the average CPP and full OAS start at 65. Whether that is enough depends on your spending, any workplace pension and whether you own your home outright.
How much tax would I pay in retirement in Ontario?
About $242,554 in federal and Ontario income tax over the 31 years to age 95 in this scenario, roughly $7,824 a year. RRSP and RRIF withdrawals, CPP and OAS are all taxable.
Does waiting until 70 for CPP and OAS help?
Yes, in this scenario. Starting both at 70 raises the sustainable income to $53,300 a year, $1,800 more, because the larger indexed pensions replace RRSP withdrawals later in life. The cost is drawing harder on savings until 70.
